Robert Lemos

I saw this post over at the EmergentChaos blog and wanted to provide some different numbers. Basically, Adam estimates that 8.9 percent of the U.S. population is affected by the recent data leak at the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Actually, the percentage at risk is a bit higher, if you look at the right population.

According to VA data, there are currently 26.5 million veterans. This does not include family members of veterans.

Since every veteran is 18 years or older, and arguably, only people who are 18 years and older need to worry about account hijacking, any analysis should only look at that population. Put in another way, I think it is arguable that kids are going to be at a much reduced risk of identity theft, though at least one company offers a service to protect the identities of younger family members.

According to FedStats, as of the 2000 Census, 25.7 percent of the U.S. population was under 18. So conversely, 74.3 percent is 18 or older. Using the CIA Factbook number of 298M for the total population, we can estimate that 221M U.S. citizens are adults. According to the CIA Fackbook, the current over 14 population is about 238M, so the 221M number sounds about right.

So the actual number should be 26.5M/221M = 12% of U.S. adults are potentially at risk after the VA leak.

UPDATE: The word “adults” was added to the headline, since that is the population that the entry is arguing is at most risk.